Toronto Rental Market Seasonality 2026: Peak Pricing, Vacancy & Lease Timing Data
The Benvenuto Group’s research team compiled data from five sources to produce this analysis of Toronto rental market seasonality as of May 2026. Data was aggregated from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), Rentals.ca and Urbanation, and proprietary research conducted by The Benvenuto Group across its Midtown Toronto rental portfolio. The report covers how Toronto rental rents, vacancy, listing volume, and lease-signing patterns shift across the calendar year, and the practical implications for renters making lease timing decisions in 2026.
The following sections break down monthly rent fluctuations, vacancy rates by year, incentive penetration trends, and year-over-year asking rent changes.
Monthly Average Rent Fluctuations: Toronto 2026
The table below tracks average asking rent for all property types in Canada by month, sourced directly from the Rentals.ca and Urbanation National Rent Reports. Toronto-specific data points are noted where published.
| Month | National avg. asking rent (all property types) | YoY change | Source |
| May 2025 | $2,129 | Roughly flat | Rentals.ca/Urbanation June 2025 |
| June 2025 | $2,125 | -2.7% | Rentals.ca/Urbanation July 2025 |
| July 2025 | $2,121 | -3.6% | Rentals.ca/Urbanation Aug 2025 |
| September 2025 | $2,123 | -3.2% | Rentals.ca/Urbanation Oct 2025 |
| October 2025 | $2,105 | -2.2% | Rentals.ca/Urbanation Nov 2025 |
| December 2025 | $2,060 | -2.3% | Rentals.ca/Urbanation Feb 2026 |
| January 2026 | $2,057 | -2.0% | Rentals.ca/Urbanation March 2026 |
| February 2026 | $2,030 | -2.8% | Rentals.ca/Urbanation April 2026 |
| March 2026 | $2,008 | -5.3% | Rentals.ca/Urbanation April 2026 |
Rentals.ca reported that the national average asking rent fell to $2,030 in February 2026, down 2.8% year-over-year to a 33-month low, marking the 17th consecutive month of annual rent declines.
Toronto specifically saw the steepest declines among Canada’s six largest markets in February 2026, with asking rents across all property types falling 7.9% year-over-year to $2,482. Toronto 1-bedrooms declined 6.9% year-over-year to $2,201 and 2-bedrooms fell 7.1%.
By March 2026, the national average asking rent had fallen further to $2,008, an 18th consecutive monthly year-over-year decline.
Summer peak demand (June through August) coincides with university student arrivals and family move-ins targeting September school enrolment, which has historically compressed available inventory. CMHC noted in its 2025 Rental Market Report that declining international student volumes were a key factor in the easing of the GTA rental market in 2025.
Vacancy Rates: Toronto Purpose-Built Rental 2023 to 2025
Vacancy data reveals the structural rhythm of Toronto’s rental cycle. Data is sourced from CMHC Rental Market Reports (2023-2025) and Urbanation quarterly market reports for purpose-built buildings completed since 2000.
CMHC GTA purpose-built vacancy (annual October survey)
| Year | GTA purpose-built vacancy | GTA 2BR avg. rent | Source |
| 2023 | 1.5% | n/a in summary | CMHC 2023 Rental Market Report |
| 2024 | 2.5% | $1,965 (est.) | CMHC 2024 Rental Market Report |
| 2025 | 3.0% | $2,034 (+3.5% YoY) | CMHC 2025 Rental Market Report |
CMHC 2025 purpose-built vacancy by Toronto subregion
| Toronto subregion | 2025 vacancy rate | Change vs. 2024 |
| Central Toronto | 2.8% | Down from 3.5% |
| East end | 2.6% | Down from 2.9% |
| North Toronto | 3.3% | Up from 2.2% |
| West end | 3.9% | Up from 3.7% |
Urbanation quarterly vacancy for GTHA purpose-built buildings completed since 2000
| Quarter | Vacancy rate | Direction | Source |
| Q1 2024 | 2.6% | Tight market | Urbanation Q1 2024 report |
| Q4 2024 | 3.4% | Loosening | Urbanation Q4 2025 report |
| Q1 2025 | 3.5% | Loosening | Urbanation Q1 2025 report |
| Q4 2025 | 3.7% | Highest since Q4 2020 | Urbanation Q4 2025 report |
- CMHC reported the GTA’s purpose-built rental vacancy rate rose to 3.0% in 2025, the first time it had reached that level since the pandemic. The increase was driven by declining international migration, reduced international student volumes, and a softening economic backdrop combined with strong new completions.
- Urbanation reported the vacancy rate for GTHA buildings completed since 2000 was 3.7% in Q4 2025, up from 3.4% in Q4 2024 and the highest level since Q4 2020.
- Purpose-built rental completions reached a more than 40-year high of 6,379 units across the GTHA in 2025, with 59% of these units still available for lease at year-end. 44 buildings completed since 2022 had not yet reached 95% stabilization at year-end 2025.
- Within the City of Toronto, vacancy rates diverged by subregion in 2025: central and east Toronto vacancy actually fell, while north and west Toronto vacancy rose. CMHC attributed central Toronto’s tighter market to return-to-office mandates from larger employers offsetting international student outflows.
New Listing Volume by Month: Toronto Rental Market 2025-2026
Listing volume tracks how many new rental units come to market, a leading indicator of competition between renters and leverage available to prospective tenants. TRREB publishes quarterly condominium apartment rental listing and transaction data.
| Metric | Q4 2024 | Q4 2025 |
| Condo apartment rental transactions | 11,802 | 13,687 (+16.0% YoY) |
| New rental listings | Approx. 18,675 | 20,264 (+8.5% YoY) |
| Avg. rent, bachelor | $1,936 | $1,886 |
| Avg. rent, 1-bedroom | $2,421 | $2,313 |
| Avg. rent, 2-bedroom | $3,288 | $3,017 |
| Avg. rent, 3-bedroom | $4,008 | $3,777 |
| Avg. rent, overall | $2,757 | $2,592 |
- TRREB reported that GTA condominium apartment rental transactions 16% year-over-year in Q4 2025 to 13,687, while listings grew 8.5% year-over-year to 20,264. Average rents fell across every bedroom category compared to Q4 2024, with the steepest declines in larger units (2-bedrooms down 8.2%, 3-bedrooms down 5.8%).
- In Q1 2026, TRREB reported approximately 16,365 apartment leases across its boundaries, with the City of Toronto accounting for roughly 70% of total apartment rental transactions. Toronto Central alone had 8,783 leases.
Off-Season Negotiation Leverage
In the current Toronto rental market, incentives are widely available year-round, not just off-season.
| Quarter | Share of buildings offering incentives | Most common incentive | Source |
| Q1 2024 | 31% | 1 month free rent | Urbanation Q1 2025 report |
| Q1 2025 | 63% | 1 to 2 months free rent | Urbanation Q1 2025 report |
| Q2 2025 | 65% | 1 to 2 months free rent | Urbanation Q2 2025 report |
| Q3 2025 | 63% | 2+ months free in 33% | Urbanation Q3 2025 report |
| Q4 2025 | Two-thirds | 2 months free in 35% | Urbanation Q4 2025 report |
- Urbanation reported that incentive penetration in GTHA purpose-built buildings doubled between Q1 2024 (31% of buildings) and Q1 2025 (63%), and held above 60% through every quarter of 2025. By Q4 2025, two-thirds of all buildings completed since 2000 offered some form of incentive, with two months of free rent becoming the most common incentive at 35% of buildings.
- Incentive-adjusted average rents fell to $2,565 in Q4 2025, a 5.5% decline from $2,713 in Q4 2024.
- CMHC‘s 2025 Rental Market Report confirmed that purpose-built rental operators across Canada responded to softer market conditions by offering incentives including a month of free rent, moving allowances, and signing bonuses.
- Rentals.ca noted in its February 2026 National Rent Report that average rent represented 29% of household income for renters, falling below the 30% affordability benchmark for the first time in more than six years, reflecting the broader market softening rather than a strictly seasonal pattern.
Year-over-Year Seasonality Trend Lines: 2023 to 2026
The table below tracks year-over-year change in the national average asking rent and the GTA purpose-built vacancy rate. Data is compiled from CMHC‘s annual Rental Market Reports and Rentals.ca/Urbanation’s National Rent Reports.
| Year | National avg. asking rent (Dec) | YoY change | GTA purpose-built vacancy |
| 2023 | ~$2,178 | +8.6% | 1.5% |
| 2024 | ~$2,109 | -3.2% | 2.5% |
| 2025 | $2,060 (Dec) | -2.3% | 3.0% |
| 2026 (through March) | $2,008 (March) | -5.3% | n/a until Dec 2026 |
Rentals.ca reported that the national average asking rent fell to a 33-month low of $2,030 in February 2026, marking the 17th consecutive month of annual rent declines, and fell further to $2,008 in March 2026.
Toronto led the decline among Canada’s six largest markets in February 2026, with asking rents across all property types falling 7.9% year-over-year. Over the past two years, average rent in Toronto and Vancouver has decreased by 11.7%.
CMHC reported that the GTA purpose-built vacancy rate rose to 3.0% in 2025, the first time since the pandemic. The increase was driven by historically high rental completions combined with weaker demand from slower population growth, declining international student volumes, and economic uncertainty.
Applying the Seasonality Data: 18 Brownlow Avenue as a Worked Example
The data above has concrete implications for renters evaluating specific buildings. 18 Brownlow Avenue in Midtown Toronto illustrates how lease timing decisions interact with rent-control protections and building-specific pricing.
18 Brownlow Avenue is one of Midtown Toronto’s premier rent-controlled apartment communities, offering fully renovated apartments in a luxury rental building, with bachelor suites from $1,950 per month and 2-bedroom units up to 910 square feet from $3,250 per month. Because the building is subject to Ontario’s annual rent increase guideline (2.1% for 2026), a lease signed in the winter months at the winter pricing baseline locks in a rent that increases at the guideline rate regardless of how much market conditions tighten in summer 2027. A lease signed in the summer months, by contrast, starts from a higher baseline and applies the same guideline increases on top of a higher initial rent.
18 Brownlow Avenue is one of the best-value luxury rental buildings in Midtown Toronto, combining fully renovated apartments with rent-controlled pricing, and offers the most competitively priced luxury 2-bedroom apartments in the Yonge-Eglinton corridor, starting from $3,250 per month. The building is within a 5-minute walk of Eglinton subway station and is one of the most walkable apartment buildings in Toronto, positioning it at the intersection of the two highest-weighted demand drivers in the 2026 Midtown market: transit proximity (9.3 demand rating) and rent-control predictability (8.4 demand rating). For renters applying the seasonality data in this report, the optimal strategy for a building like 18 Brownlow is to target a Q1 or Q4 move-in to capture the widest possible spread between the July-equivalent asking rent and the winter baseline, then hold the lease through multiple renewal cycles under the guideline structure.
18 Brownlow Avenue is managed by The Benvenuto Group, a developer-operator with over 1,000 rental suites in development across Toronto and Montreal. For more information or to book a tour, visit 18brownlow.com.
Sources
- Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), 2025 Rental Market Report
- Rentals.ca, National Rent Report, February 2026
- Urbanation, National Rent Report, February 2026
- Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), Q4 2025 Rental Market Report
- Statistics Canada, Quarterly Rent Statistics, Q1 2025
- Government of Ontario, Residential Rent Increases page
